In my opinion, correct score trading is one of the most exciting and enjoyable ways to trade football on Betfair.
It's not easy to predict exact football results since a match can end 0-0, 4-0, 3-3 or any other score. However, it's this challenge that makes trading correct scores so much fun!
There are two main ways to trade correct scores:
- Target score trading
- Assured Soccer Profits
Everybody has a different attitude to trading and will likely suit one method or the other.
In this article I will explain how correct score trading works, the differences between the two methods and how much profit you can expect to make from each.
How do Correct Scores Work?
Most beginners know how the Match Odds market works. It's very popular with bettors who back the home or away win as well as new football traders who lay the draw.
Match Odds is a simple market with 3 possible outcomes:
- Home win
- Away win
- Draw
On the other hand, the Correct Score market on Betfair is a bit more complicated because it has 19 possible scores!
Here's an example of the Betfair CS market for a fixture between Sheffield United and Arsenal in the English Premier League.
You can see all scores between 0-0 and 3-3 plus some 'Any Other' options.
- AOH = Any Other Home Win
- AOA = Any Other Away Win
- AOD = Any Other Draw
These cover scores in which at least one of the teams scores 4 (or more) goals.
For example, 'Any Other Home Win' covers 4-1 while 'Any Other Draw' will pay out if a game ends 4-4.
These scores are not too common, even when strong 'elite' teams are playing against much weaker opposition. The prices can be very attractive, but you won't hit them often.
Correct Score Betting
Wouldn't it be nice if you could place a few correct score bets, then get on with your life while a massive amount of winnings pile up?
In the real world, of course, that's simply impossible (or we'd all be doing it!).
If you choose to bet on correct scores, you need predict which exact score will come in, not just the outcome of the game in terms of home win, away win or draw.
You don't need me to tell you that it's far more difficult to determine that Arsenal will win 1-3 than it is to simply to predict that they will win the game.
Of course, the market knows this and you will get a much better price for Arsenal to win 1-3 than you will for simply backing The Gunners to pick up the 3 points.
Correct Score Trading
Instead of placing a bet and then hoping that everything goes your way, it's a much better idea to trade correct scores.
You can 'Dutch' a number of scores and still take advantage of the bigger odds.
But with trading, you are able to chip away at the liability and - if things go to plan - lock in some profit before the game ends.
Correct score trading can be really quite simple or as complicated as you wish to make it. I guess that’s the beauty of this particular market on Betfair; it is incredibly flexible.
Of course, In order to have profit (green) somewhere on a Betfair market, there also has to be liability (red).
The same as every other football trader, you are in complete control of your liability.
You can choose exactly how much red you are prepared to risk from your betting bank in order to potentially reward yourself with green.
What is Dutching? Well, firstly it has nothing to do with the Netherlands! Here is our complete guide to Dutch betting, including a FREE Dutching calculator.
Target Score Trading
Target score trading (also known as 'scattergun') is where you pick out clusters of scores and trade around them as goals go in.
For example, if you think that the final score will be 2-0 you may decide to cover 2-1 and 3-0 as well. If the home team goes 2-0 up you have a third goal covered either way.
Or, if you find a fixture that has a strong chance of both teams scoring, you can ignore 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 0-1, 0-2, 0-3 which narrows down your target score options significantly.
The great thing about correct score trading is that you don't need to predict the exact score in order to make a profit.
As long as you get near a target score or two in the second half, that will be enough to secure a profit from your trade.
At Goal Profits, we have three 'target score' strategies.
Our two main correct score strategies aim for either 3 or 4 goals in 90 minutes, the other is much more aggressive and looks for 3 goals in the second half only.
These strategies are very popular with members because, when the right number of goals are scored at the right times, they produce massive profits.
The key is to control losses while patiently waiting for the really big winners to land.
Finding Target Score Trades
There are literally dozens, if not hundreds, of ways to find suitable games for trading.
They all revolve in some way around past performance, whether it be recent form or previous seasons.
I don’t have a crystal ball that I can use as a football scores predictor and I’m assuming that you don’t either, so we work with what we have.
At Goal Profits, for example, members have access to various Team Stats shortlists that are generated daily and offer multiple filtering options.
Seasonal performance is the most obvious method of finding matches to trade.
Look for teams that perform consistently, perhaps scoring plenty of goals or keeping lots of clean sheets. That will give you a pointer as to what you can expect in future fixtures.
Remember that football is a wonderfully random game, so accurate correct score prediction is not easy.
Would you predict the final score of Arsenal v Wolves the same as Arsenal v Liverpool? Probably not, but both could end up with exactly the same result.
Oh... and Manchester City always score right? Wrong!
Even the best teams have a 0-0 result now and again.
A correct score prediction formula that tends to be popular is looking at recent results only, often known as 'short form'.
No team goes through an entire season playing at their very best; they go through periods of high performance but will suffer dips in form.
Short-form traders find teams which are both playing well and anticipate that it will continue into the next fixture.
Some other traders use head-to-head results, known as 'H2H'.
The idea is that lightning often does strike twice but, with managers and players moving around so much these days, it's not a method I rely on myself.
H2H does give me some added confidence if I see that the same fixture last season had goals, but that's about it.
Half-Time Correct Score
What you could think about is splitting fixtures in half.
For one thing, the 'Half-Time Score' market on Betfair has 10 outcomes rather than the 19 in the full Correct Score market.
Also, our Team Stats Database (stats for more than 300,000 matches) shows us that the average game of football has 1.15 first half goals.
Only 11.1% of all games have 3 or more first half goals and 36.0% are 1-0 or 0-1 at the break. That narrows things down significantly.
The downside is that market liquidity can be quite limited.
Also, of course, no team ever has to score in the first half. At least in the second half you know that teams will attack if they need a goal to equalise or win the game.
Second Half Correct Score
Naturally, your next option is to wait until half-time before entering a trade.
With a second half correct score trade you use the full market, but the prices will have already moved a lot.
For example, the 0-0 price will usually be around a third of what it was at kick-off.
Quite a discount!
Whereas you will often be looking to target one goal in the first half, after half-time you can go after two or more goals much more confidently.
Of course, you still may not wish to lay the correct score at half-time, but if you're patient the prices will come into range.
Our second half correct score strategy achieves some really big profits.
It is quite aggressive so doesn't suit everyone, but a goal or two at the right time produces a 'free bet' and a sizeable potential return.
How to Trade Correct Scores
Once you've backed your target scores and the game has kicked off, there are two elements to your trade:
- Reducing your liability (without creating too much risk).
- Banking a profit (without missing out on a bigger return).
Let's imagine you 'Dutch' 1-2 and 2-1 target scores for a total of £10, perhaps using our free Dutching calculator to work out the stakes.
Once matched, you will have an equal profit on each target score and all of the other possible scores will have £10 liability.
In order to reduce that £10 liability (your original stake) you can lay other scores.
For example, you could lay 0-0 for £10 and then just one goal would leave you with scratch (no profit or loss) and a free bet on 1-2 and 2-1.
The downside of this is that the 0-0 price to lay would be quite high, especially in the first half. That would leave you with a big loss if the game ended 0-0.
Is it worth the risk? Only you know whether you can stomach big losses from time to time. Personally, I prefer to avoid them.
A better option is to wait for the 0-0 price to fall (known as 'time decay') as long as no goals are scored. If a goal goes in, you can simply lay 1-0 instead.
Once you hit a target score, use the profit to at least remove your liability.
You may even be able to lock in a profit. The later you hit a target score, the more profit you'll usually end up with because the price to lay will be lower.
The challenge here is to use the profit available before the next goal is scored (if another goal is scored) without laying off all your potential profit too quickly at higher prices.
As you can imagine, this is a fine balancing act!
Sometimes you get it right, other times you wish you'd done something different. All you can do is make the best decision at the time and live with it.
Assured Soccer Profits
This system (also known as 'ASP') has been generating consistent profits since 2011.
It was the brainchild of retired dentist Geoff Parle who spent a couple of years perfecting the trade selection process as well as the strategy itself.
ASP is completely different from target score trading!
Rather than wait for big winners to come along, most ASP trades end with a profit and this appeals to many more traders who prefer consistent bank growth.
Goal Profits team member, Bryn Roberts, started trading with the Assured Soccer Profits system in August 2022 using a £500 bank.
By the end of February 2023, his bank had grown to £7,671.14.
Here's a snippet of Bryn's results sheet...
As you can see, this is very much part-time. Bryn doesn't even get into one day per day!
I certainly recommend that you take a look at ASP. It's ideal for traders of all experience as the detailed User Guide explains everything in detail and there's plenty of support.
Profit Expectations
Depending on whether you trade target scores or you use the Assured Soccer Profits system, your profit expectations will be completely different.
Looking at target score trading first...
- It is possible to make a monster profit from one correct score trade
- It is not possible to make a profit from every correct score trade
It only takes one big target score hit to make an entire weekend of football trading profitable. Of course, you don’t know in advance which trade will be the big winner.
Your aim as a trader is to get away with scratch wherever possible (no profit or loss) and bank small profits when opportunities arise, while waiting for a big winner.
Remember... a scratch trade is actually a win! You have backed the target scores and then won your stake back. While it may not feel like a win, it certainly is one.
Patience is key. There are likely to be runs of scratch trades and you cannot let temptation get the better of you.
Wait for the right opportunities, trade smartly, control your risk and the profits will come.
Profit expectations are completely different for Assured Soccer Profits traders.
As you saw above, the vast majority of Bryn's ASP trades end in profit. This is because he started with a £500 bank and staked properly while learning the system.
It's unlikely that someone could start with a £10,000 bank and achieve the same profits right away but, with experience, anyone can do it.
As the old saying goes, 'learn before you earn' and this is particularly true with correct score trading.
